Waa in UNWTO fur dhalo Don Perion ku saabsan kii ugu dambeeyay UNWTO Dalxiiska Adduunka Barometer warbixin ubax ah oo ku saabsan soo kabashada dalxiiska? World Tourism Network (WTN) Madaxweynaha iyo Khabiirka amniga Dr. Peter Tarlow weli kuma biiri doono UNWTO Xoghayaha Guud Zurab Pololikashvili oo ku jira rootigan.

Dr. Peter Tarlow, WTN: "Sug daqiiqad!"

Sida laga soo xigtay ugu dambeeyay UNWTO Barometer Dalxiiska Adduunka, Dalxiiska Caalamiga ah waxa la arkay dib u soo kabasho xoogan shantii bilood ee ugu horaysay 2022, iyada oo ku dhawaad 250 milyan oo soo galooti caalami ah la diwaan galiyay. Tani waxay barbardhigtay 77 milyan oo soo galay Janaayo ilaa Maajo 2021 waxayna la macno tahay in waaxdu ay soo kabsatay ku dhawaad kala bar (46%) heerarkii masiibada ka hor 2019.

Tani waa war wanaagsan

Xogta waxaa bixiyay UNWTO ee hadda la sii daayay UNWTO Barometer-ka ayaa hoosta ka xariiqaya horumarkan baaxadda leh ee laga gaaray soo kabashada waaxda socdaalka iyo dalxiiska.

Waxaa laga yaabaa ka hor inta aanad furin dhalada labaad ee Don Perion, ka fiirso duufaan xoog leh oo horay u onkodaysay cirifka. Hubanti la'aanta ku saabsan sawirkan ifaya ee dib u soo celinta dalxiisku wuxuu noqdaa mid khatar badan maalinba maalinta ka dambaysa.

"Dib u soo kabashada dalxiisku waxay ku soo ururtay xawli badan meelo badan oo adduunka ah, iyada oo ka hortagaysa caqabadaha hortaagan," ayuu yidhi. UNWTO Xoghayaha guud Zurab Pololikashvili. Isla mar ahaantaana, wuxuu sidoo kale ku talinayaa in taxaddar la siiyo "dabaylaha dhaqaalaha iyo caqabadaha juquraafiyeed ee saameyn kara qaybta inta ka hartay 2022 iyo wixii ka dambeeya".

Xoghayuhu wuxuu leeyahay sabab wanaagsan oo uu ku tilmaamo arrintan. Sida laga soo xigtay WTN, Diiwaangeli sicir-bararka sarreeya, isbeddelka Doolarka Maraykanka, Ruble xooggan inkastoo cunaqabatayn, dagaalka Ukraine iyo Ruushka, iyo dhibaatooyinka cuntada iyo tamarta ee suurtogalka ah waxay si fudud u riixi karaan safarka jilicsan iyo warshadaha dalxiiska ee gees madow. World Tourism Network wuxuu si gaar ah uga walaacsan yahay ganacsiyada dhexdhexaadka ah iyo kuwa yar yar ee laga yaabo inay mar kale la yaabto.

Coronavirus ma dhammaan laakiin wuu ka xoog badan yahay weligii, laakiin qofna ma rabo inuu mar dambe ka hadlo. Qof kastaa wuu ku daalay inuu guriga ku fadhiisto go'doon iyo rar diyaaradeed oo ballaadhan oo dadka dhintay ee Maraykanka ah oo saaran COVID-19 maalin kasta hadda ma khusayso.

Oo ma jiraan busbuska? Ma ninka khaniisiinta ah oo kaliya ayaa laga yaabaa inuu ka welwelo? Xaqiiqadu aad bay uga duwan tahay.

Yurub iyo Ameerika waxay horseed u yihiin soo kabashada

Europe la soo dhaweeyay in ka badan afar jeer in ka badan imaatinka caalamiga ah shantii bilood ee ugu horeysay 2021 (+350%), taasoo ay kor u qaaday baahida xooggan ee gobolka iyo meesha laga saaray dhammaan xayiraadaha safarka ee dalal badan. Gobolku wuxuu arkay waxqabad gaar ah oo xooggan bishii Abriil (+458%), taasoo ka tarjumaysa xilliga Easter-ka mashquulka ah. Ameerika, imaatinka ayaa labanlaabmay (+112%). Si kastaba ha ahaatee, soo noqoshada xooggan waxaa lagu cabbiraa natiijooyin daciif ah 2021, iyo imaatinka 36% iyo 40% ayaa ka hooseeya heerarka 2019 ee labada gobol, siday u kala horreeyaan.

Nidaam isku mid ah ayaa lagu arkay gobollada kale. Kobaca xooggan ee ku jira Bariga Dhexe (+ 157%) iyo Africa (+156%) ayaa ku hadhay 54% iyo 50% ka hooseeya heerarka 2019, siday u kala horreeyaan, iyo Aasiya iyo Baasifigga ku dhawaad imaatinka labanlaabmay (+94%). Si kastaba ha ahaatee, tirooyinka ayaa 90% ka hooseeyay 2019, maadaama xudduudaha qaar ay weli ka xiran yihiin safarka aan muhiimka ahayn. Halkan, fududaynta dhawaanta ee xannibaadaha waxay muujinaysaa natiijooyin horumaray bilihii Abriil iyo Maajo.

Dhawr gobol ayaa soo kabsaday inta u dhaxaysa 70% iyo 80% heerarkoodii hore ee masiibada, oo ay hogaaminayeen Kariibiyaanka iyo Bartamaha Ameerika, ku xiga Koonfurta Mediterranean, Galbeedka iyo Waqooyiga Yurub. Waxaa xusid mudan in meelaha qaar ay dhaafeen heerarka 2019, oo ay ku jiraan US Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, Jamhuuriyadda Moldova, Albania, Honduras, iyo Puerto Rico.

Kharashaadka dalxiiska ayaa sidoo kale kor u kacaya.

kacaya kharashka dalxiiska Laga soo bilaabo suuqyada isha ee ugu muhiimsan waxay la socdaan soo kabashada la arkay. Kharashka caalamiga ah ee ay bixiyaan dalxiisayaasha ka yimid Faransiiska, Jarmalka, Talyaaniga, iyo Maraykanka ayaa hadda jooga 70% ilaa 85% ee heerarkii hore ee masiibada. Isla mar ahaantaana, kharashka Hindiya, Sacuudi Carabiya, iyo Qatar ayaa mar hore dhaaftay heerarka 2019.

Marka laga hadlayo kuwa caalamiga ah rasiidhada dalxiiska kasbaday meelaha loo aado, tiro sii kordheysa oo waddamo ah - Jamhuuriyadda Moldova, Serbia, Seychelles, Romania, Waqooyiga Macedonia, Saint Lucia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Albania, Pakistan, Sudan, Turkiye, Bangladesh, El Salvador, Mexico, Croatia, iyo Portugal - waxay si buuxda u soo kabteen heerarkooda cudurka faafa ka hor.

Diidmada caqabadaha soo koraya

Baahida xooggan inta lagu jiro xilliga xagaaga ee Hemisphere Waqooyiga ayaa la filayaa inay xoojiyaan natiijooyinkan wanaagsan, gaar ahaan marka meelo badan ay fududeeyaan ama kor u qaadaan xannibaadaha safarka. Laga bilaabo 22 Luulyo, 62 goobood (kuwaas oo 39 ka mid ah Yurub ku yaal) ma lahayn xannibaado la xidhiidha COVID-19, iyo tirada sii kordheysa ee meelaha Aasiya ku yaal ayaa bilaabay inay fududeeyaan tooda.

Sida laga soo xigtay Hay'adda Duulista Rayidka ee Caalamiga ah (ICAO), hoos u dhaca guud ee awoodda hawada caalamiga ah ee 2022 waxay ku koobnaan doontaa 20% ilaa 25% kuraasta shirkadaha diyaaradaha marka la barbardhigo 2019. Adkeysiga noocan oo kale ah ayaa sidoo kale ka muuqda heerarka deganaanshaha hoteelka. Iyada oo ku saleysan xogta laga helay shirkadda cabbiraadda warshadaha ee STR, heerarka deggenaanshaha adduunka ayaa kor u kacay 66% bishii Juun 2022, laga bilaabo 43% bishii Janaayo.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, baahidii la filayey oo ka xoog badan ayaa abuurtay caqabado hawleed iyo xoog shaqo oo la taaban karo. Dagaalka Ukraine, sicir-bararka iyo dulsaarka kor u kaca, iyo cabsida laga qabo hoos u dhac dhaqaale, waxay sii wadaan inay keenaan khatarta soo kabashada. Sanduuqa Lacagta Adduunka ee IMF ayaa tilmaamaya hoos u dhac dhaqaale oo caalami ah oo ka yimid 6.1% 2021 ilaa 3.2% 2022 iyo 2.9% 2023. Isla markaana, UNWTO waxay sii wadaa inay si dhow ula shaqeyso Ururka Caafimaadka Adduunka (WHO) si ay ula socoto masiibada iyo xaaladaha degdegga ah ee caafimaadka dadweynaha iyo saameynta ay ku yeelan karaan safarka.

Xaaladaha Gobolka ee 2022

UNWTOMuuqaallada mustaqbalka ee mustaqbalka ee la daabacay Maajo 2022 waxay tilmaamayaan soogalootiga caalamiga ah inay gaareen 55% ilaa 70% heerarkii hore ee masiibada 2022. Natiijadu waxay ku xiran tahay duruufaha soo koraya, badiyaa isbeddelka xayiraadaha safarka, sicir bararka socda, qiimaha tamarta sare, xaaladaha dhaqaalaha guud, Kobcinta dagaalka Ukraine, iyo xaaladda caafimaad ee la xiriirta masiibada. Caqabadihii ugu dambeeyay sida shaqaale yaraan, cidhiidhi ba'an ee garoonka diyaaradaha, dib u dhaca duulimaadyada, iyo baajinta ayaa sidoo kale saameyn ku yeelan kara tirooyinka dalxiiska caalamiga ah.

Muuqaallada gobolku waxay muujinayaan Yurub iyo Ameerika duubista natiijooyinka dalxiiska ee ugu wanaagsan 2022, halka Aasiya iyo Baasifigga la filayo inay dib u dhacaan siyaasadaha safarka oo xaddidan awgeed. Dalxiisayaasha caalamiga ah ee yimaada Europe wuxuu kori karaa 65% ama 80% ee heerarka 2019 sanadka 2022, taasoo ku xidhan xaalado kala duwan, halka Ameerika, waxay gaari karaan 63% ilaa 76% heerarkaas.

In Afrika iyo Bariga Dhexe, imaatinka waxay gaari karaan ilaa 50% ilaa 70% heerarkii hore ee masiibada. Marka la barbardhigo, Aasiya iyo Baasifigga, waxay ku sugnaan doonaan 30% ee heerarka 2019 xaaladda ugu fiican sababtoo ah siyaasadaha adag iyo xaddidaadaha.

MAXAA LAGU QAADAYAA MAQAALKAN:

Sida laga soo xigtay WTN, Record high inflation, the shifting of the US Dollar, a strong Ruble despite sanctions, the war in Ukraine and Russia, and a possible food and energy crisis can easily push the fragile travel and tourism industry into a dark corner.
Everyone is tired of sitting at home in isolation and a widebody plane load of the dead in the United States on COVID-19 every day is no longer relevant.
At the same time, he also advises caution given the “economic headwinds and geopolitical challenges which could impact the sector in the remainder of 2022 and beyond”.